The Relationship Test That Determines If You’ll Stay Together

Hey there,

In 1992, Dr. John Gottman and his research team did something mildly terrifying.

They watched sets of married couples interact for a few hours, then predicted—with 94% accuracy—who would be divorced in three years.

Let me repeat that:

They sat in a lab, watched couples talk, and could tell with near certainty whether they’d still be together years down the line.

That’s as insane as my grandma’s “She’s pregnant, I can see it in her ankles” success rate. (p.s. she was never wrong)

No tarot cards, no tea leaves—just science.

So, what was the giveaway?

— Yelling?
— Cheating?
— Throwing plates?

No.

The biggest predictor of relationship success was something so small and so mundane that most people didn’t even notice it happening.

They called it: bids for connection.

Bids for Connection: The Low-Key Ask for Love

A bid for connection is any attempt to get attention, affirmation, or engagement.

Bids can be small or big, verbal or nonverbal.

They can take any shape or form— an expression, question, physical outreach or gesture like a wink or a knowing glance. 

But most of the time bids are subtle, little requests that we send out to another person in an attempt to connect with them.

The research findings on these “bids for connection” and divorce predictability is summed up pretty simply by "The Bird Test."

Here’s how it works:

Imagine you’re walking with a friend or your partner, and you casually say, “Oh wow, look at that bird!”

What happens next is everything.

— Do they look and say, “Oh yeah, where”? ❤️ That’s a win.
— Do they completely ignore you like a sentient potato? 🚩 That’s a red flag.
— Do they roll their eyes and say, “Who cares about a dumb bird?” 🏃‍♀️ Run.

The Bird Test sums up Gottman’s findings: When someone invites you into a tiny, insignificant moment, how you respond could determine the entire health of your relationship.

The Gottman’s research on bids found that couples in lasting relationships responded positively to these bids 86% of the time. Couples on the fast track to divorce? Only 33%.

Even Tik Tok’s caught on to The Bird Test…

@thegottmaninstitute

We called this Bids for Connection in the research, but The Bird Test nails it when it comes to turning towards. Drs. Julie and John Gottm... See more

Why Does the Bird Test Work?

It’s not about the bird. It’s never about the bird.

It’s about attention and emotional investment.

When someone points out something random, they’re not just making an observation—they’re sending out a tiny, low-stakes invitation to connect.

If you respond, even with something as simple as a nod or a “wow, that’s pretty cool”, you’re turning towards them and reinforcing a bond.

You’re saying, I see you. I hear you. You matter.

If you ignore or dismiss it? Over time, those tiny rejections add up.

Gottman’s research found that the happiest couples aren’t the ones with the most extravagant date nights or perfect marriages.

They’re the ones who engage in the everyday, boring, nothing-special interactions and treat them like they matter. Because they do.

In other words, your entire relationship might just hinge on how you react to a pigeon.

The Magic Ratio: 5 to 1

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Gottman found that strong, lasting relationships maintain a 5:1 ratio of positive to negative interactions.

For every one ignored bid, eye roll, or passive-aggressive “whatever,” you need at least five positive interactions to make up for it.

Why? Because humans are wired to remember the bad stuff more than the good.

And because your brain isn’t fair at keeping score.

• One ignored “Look at that bird” outweighs a week of taking out the trash unasked.

• One snarky “Why do you care about that?” cancels out multiple thoughtful gestures.

Your partner isn’t tallying up all the times you were great. They’re remembering the time you dismissed them when they were just trying to share something.

Want a strong relationship? Catch more bids. Give more bids.

Keep the ratio in your favor.

Bids Aren’t Just for Love—They’re for Literally Everyone You Know

Bids for connection are a subtle social cue that affects every relationship you care about.

✅ At Work:
Your coworker says, “Hey, I made an extra coffee- want it?” If you mutter “cool” and take it without looking up, you ignored a bid. If you say, “Oh nice! You’re a legend,” you just strengthened that connection.

✅ With Friends:
Your friend texts, “We should catch up soon!” If you don’t respond, that friendship weakens. If you say, “Yes! Your place or mine?” you just reinforced it.

✅ With Family:
Your mom sends you another text that reads like a full blown email:

"Dear Shakila, I hope this message finds you well. The weather here is nice. Please call me when you get a chance. Love, your mother." 

You could roll your eyes and sigh, or you could respond with, “LOL, classic mom move.”

One makes her feel seen. The other makes her wonder why she even bothered.

It’s not about what people say. It’s about whether or not you engage and connect.

READER POLL

Final thoughts

Most relationships don’t explode in a fiery, dramatic breakup. They fade out from a thousand small ignored moments.

Bids are purposely subtle because people don’t want to look desperate. Nobody wants to say, “PLEASE LOVE ME” and risk rejection.

So we go the safer route: we toss out a little story, a joke, or a question, secretly hoping the other person catches it and throws it back.

If they do? Connection and bond strengthened.
If they don’t? Well… too many dropped bids leads to loneliness and disconnection.

So next time someone says, “Hey, look at that weird bird,” don’t just hear bird. Hear opportunity. 

Because if someone is excited about something — even if it seems odd and small to you — don’t decide how to respond based on whether you care about the thing.

Decide based on whether you care about the person.

Because how we respond to each other’s insignificant seeming bids can actually determine whether any relationship, romantic or not, fails or flourishes. 

Now, I’m off to watch some birds… 🦅 🏈

Catch you next week,

Shakila

p.s. Here’s the results of last week’s poll.